Companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and this risk needs to be properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing."

Learn These 3 Keys to Success:

1.  Correlation & regression analysis; real option analysis; the Black-Scholes option pricing model; binomial trees; GARCH Models; the measurement of energy price risk; and how to use correlation and regression analysis for maintaining a competitive edge.
 
2.  How to minimize price risk through operational design Flexibility; measure forward price volatility and adapt Value-at-Risk concepts (VaR) for the Energy Industry.

3. Use actual case studies to examine 1) how Monte Carlo simulation is used to value Demand Response programs; 2) benchmarking techniques used for estimating the incremental cost savings of expanding existing operations; and 3) real-option value of generation assets.

Seminar Agenda

DAY ONE:

The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking in Deregulated Markets (2.0 hours)

Means vs. Standard Deviations

Distribution Shapes

Confidence Intervals

Probability

Simulation

Application: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation

Example 1—Confidence Intervals for Calculating Value at Risk - VaR

Example 2—Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service in a Deregulated Retail Electricity Market

Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge (2.0 hours)

Univariate and Multivariate Analysis

Hypotheses Testing

Testing for Equal Means and Variances

Control Charts

Application: Benchmarking to Industry Standards

Example 1—Comparing O&M Expenditure to that of Peer Facilities

Example 2— Estimating the "Economies of Scale" (marginal cost reduction) Associated with Multiple Unit Generation Facilities

The Energy Forecasting Toolbox (2 hours)

Historical Trend Analysis

Univariate Time Series

Multivariate Time Series

Econometric Models

Bayesian Estimation

End-Use Models

Engineering or Process Models

Optimization

Network Models

Simulation

Game Theory

Scenarios

Surveys

DAY TWO:

Time Series Step-by-Step (2hours)

Time Plots

Adjusting for Stationarity

Logarithmic Transformation

Differencing

Correlation and Partial Correlation Functions

Model Specification and Selection

ARMA Models

Estimated Parameters and Standard Errors

Testing for White Noise

Heteroskedasticity

Autocorrelation

Forecasting Future Values

Additional Seasonality Considerations

Example 1—Statistical Reports that everyone can understand

Introduction to Real Options Analysis (2 hours)

Details of Option Model Implementation

Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models

Application: Real Option Valuation

Example of Valuing The Option of Real-Time Forward Load Reduction

Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices

Measuring Forward Volatility

Adapting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Energy Industry

Application: Optimal Hedging using Statistical Triggers

Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility

Example 1— Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options 

Example 2— Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options 

Your Instructor

Kenneth Skinner, Ph.D. –Dr. Skinner is Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Integral Analytics (IA), an analytical software and management consulting firm focused on operational, planning, and market research solutions. Reaching every aspect of the energy industry, the IA proprietary analytical, programming and statistical methods allow clients more precise valuation, faster and more affordably. Dr. Skinner has over 15 years of energy industry experience including 5 years as the Derivative Structuring Manager for Sempra Energy Solutions, a national energy supplier, focused on developing retail commodity supply strategies including portfolio risk management, hedging strategy, and least-cost supply opportunities. Having worked with several energy consulting companies including Summit Blue Consulting, RDI Consulting and PHB Hagler Bailly, Dr. Skinner has significant experience in economic analysis and modeling of energy assets including development of portfolio VaR models, structured valuation of distributed generation and electricity and natural gas commodity transactions, financial risk assessment and valuation of energy hedging strategies.

Who Should Attend this Seminar?

Electric utilities, generators, marketers and industrials; corporate planners, economists, rate making staff, energy and electric power executives; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators, and engineers.

Prerequisites

This fundamental-to-advanced level group live seminar has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required before the seminar.

Why Choose PGS?

PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS program today, and team up with the leader in electric power and energy education. Join over 5,000 energy and financial professionals who have already attended one or more of PGS's proven courses. View Past Seminar Attendees

Hotel & Seminar Information

This one and a half day seminar will be held at the hotel listed below or can be conducted on-site at your facilities. The seminar will start promptly at 8:00 AM and will finish at 4:00 PM on the first day. On the second day, the seminar will resume at 8:00 AM and will finish at 1:00 PM.The program includes continental breakfast, lunch, and coffee/cookie breaks. Attendees also receive a professionally produced seminar manual that can serve as a valuable office reference. Dress is casual for all seminars. 

NYC Torch Club (NYU Campus)
18 Waverly Place
New York, NY 10003
Telephone 1-212-998-6724
View Venue Website

PGS Energy Training will conduct this seminar at the Torch Club on the campus of New York University. Because of the diversity of hotels found in the area, PGS Energy Training will not be holding a block of sleeping rooms with one particular hotel. Should you need a list of local hotels in the area, please contact us at 412-521-4737 and we can help you with your accommodations.

Registration Fee & Discounts

Register Now and invest in your future. The price for this two day seminar is $1,495 (USD).

• Additional attendees and government employees receive a 10% discount.
   
• Sign up for 4 or more classroom seats during the same month and all attendees will receive a 20% total discount. ( If you plan to register 4 or more classroom seats, but want attendees to pay by separate credit cards, register one party now and mention this fact in the "Comments" section of the registration form. We will manually subtract the 20% discount from the first registrant's seminar fee. Tell other parties in your group to mention your name when they register, and we will give them the 20% discount as well.) Please call 412-521-4737 for more information.
  

Payment & Cancellations

Payment is due prior to the start of the seminar by Visa, Master Card, American Express, Diners Club, or corporate check. Seminar fees will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made. Please make checks payable to "PGS Energy Training" 43 Fawnvue Drive, Suite 700 • Mckees Rocks, PA 15136. Cancellations can be made up to three (3) business days prior to the start of the seminar for a full refund. No refunds will be made thereafter, but credit will be given toward future workshops. Substitutions may be made at any time. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at 412-521-4737.

CPE Credits

This group live seminar is eligible for 12.0 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit. One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity. You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.

PGS  Energy Training is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA)  as a sponsor of continuing professional education  on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on  the acceptance of individual courses for CPE  credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors  may be addressed to the National Registry of  CPE Sponsors, 150 Fourth Avenue North, Suite 700, Nashville, TN, 37219-2417. Web site: www.nasba.org. CPAs interested in attending any seminars  should contact our offices for details on CPE credits granted and any prerequisite requirements.