Energy Training & Electric Power Classroom Seminars

Fundamentals of Energy Statistical Analysis
A Two-Day Classroom Seminar (CPE Approved)
Houston, TX - May 28 & 29, Homewood Suites by Hilton Houston Near the Galleria
New York, NY - June 24 & 25, NYC Torch Club (NYU Campus)

Companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and this risk needs to be properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing."

Operational decisions, capital investment, risk management, strategic positioning, litigation, and marketing are some of the many areas that require accurate information and analysis founded on sound statistical principles. This comprehensive two-day program is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization.

This is a hands on seminar you are encouraged but not required to bring a computer. Click here to register.

What You Will Learn
  1. Correlation & regression analysis; real option analysis; the Black-Scholes option pricing model; binomial trees; GARCH Models; the measurement of energy price risk; and how to use correlation and regression analysis for maintaining a competitive edge.
  2. How to minimize price risk through operational design Flexibility; measure forward price volatility and adapt Value-at-Risk concepts (VaR) for the Energy Industry.
  3. Use actual case studies to examine 1) how Monte Carlo simulation is used to value Demand Response programs; 2) benchmarking techniques used for estimating the incremental cost savings of expanding existing operations; and 3) real-option value of generation assets.
Seminar Agenda

DAY ONE:

The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking in Deregulated Markets (2.0 hours)

Means vs. Standard Deviations

Distribution Shapes

Confidence Intervals

Probability

Simulation

Application: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation

Example 1-Confidence Intervals for Calculating Value at Risk - VaR

Example 2-Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service in a Deregulated Retail Electricity Market

Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge (2.0 hours)

Univariate and Multivariate Analysis

Hypotheses Testing

Testing for Equal Means and Variances

Control Charts

Application: Benchmarking to Industry Standards

Example 1-Comparing O&M Expenditure to that of Peer Facilities

Example 2- Estimating the "Economies of Scale" (marginal cost reduction) Associated with Multiple Unit Generation Facilities

The Energy Forecasting Toolbox (2 hours)

Historical Trend Analysis

Univariate Time Series

Multivariate Time Series

Econometric Models

Bayesian Estimation

End-Use Models

Engineering or Process Models

Optimization

Network Models

Simulation

Game Theory

Scenarios

Surveys

DAY TWO:

Time Series Step-by-Step (2hours)

Time Plots

Adjusting for Stationarity

Logarithmic Transformation

Differencing

Correlation and Partial Correlation Functions

Model Specification and Selection

ARMA Models

Estimated Parameters and Standard Errors

Testing for White Noise

Heteroskedasticity

Autocorrelation

Forecasting Future Values

Additional Seasonality Considerations

Example 1-Statistical Reports that everyone can understand

Introduction to Real Options Analysis (2 hours)

Details of Option Model Implementation

Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models

Application: Real Option Valuation

Example of Valuing The Option of Real-Time Forward Load Reduction

Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices

Measuring Forward Volatility

Adapting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Energy Industry

Application: Optimal Hedging using Statistical Triggers

Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility

Example 1- Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options

Example 2- Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options

Your Instructor - Houston, New York

Kenneth Skinner, PhD - VP and Chief Operating Officer, Integral Analytics

Kenneth Skinner, Ph.D. is Vice President of Risk & Evaluation Products for Integral Analytics, an analytical software and management consulting firm focused on operational, planning, and market research solutions. Dr. Skinner has over 20 years’ experience in evaluation and risk measurement, having worked as an energy consultant with PHB Hagler Bailly and Financial Times (FT) Energy, and as the Derivative Structuring Manager for the retail energy supplier Sempra Energy Solutions. He has his Ph.D. from Colorado School of Mines, in Mineral Economics, with an emphasis in Operations Research, an MBA from Regis University and his BS in Engineering from Letourneau University.

Dr. Skinner is a nationally recognized expert in economic evaluation and modeling of energy assets including energy storage, distribution and generation, efficiency and demand response, renewable energy alternatives, financial derivatives and structured contracts using net present value, econometric and statistical methods, optimization principles, and real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is currently the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal and is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.

Who Should Attend this Seminar

Among those who will benefit from this seminar include energy and electric power executives; attorneys; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators; engineers; and corporate planners. Types of companies that typically attend this program include energy producers and marketers; utilities; banks & financial houses; industrial companies; accounting, consulting & law firms; municipal utilities; government regulators and electric generators.

Prerequisites and Advance Preparation

This fundamental level group live seminar has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required before the seminar.

Program Level

Basic level. This fundamental course begins with basic material and then proceeds to the intermediate level.

Delivery Method

Group-live.

Why choose PGS?

PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs. View Past Seminar Attendees

Hotel and Seminar Information
This seminar will be held at the hotel listed below or can be conducted on-site at your facilities. The seminar will start promptly at 8:00 AM and will finish at 4:00 PM on the first day. On the second day, the seminar will resume at 8:00 AM and will finish at 12:00 PM. The program includes continental breakfast, lunch, and coffee/cookie breaks. Attendees also receive a professionally produced seminar manual that can serve as a valuable office reference. Dress is casual for all seminars
May 28 & 29
Homewood Suites by Hilton Houston Near the Galleria
2950 Sage Road
Houston, TX 77056
Telephone: (713) 439-1305
Because of the diversity of hotels found in the area, PGS Energy Training will not be holding a block of sleeping rooms with one particular hotel. Should you need a list of local hotels in the area, please contact us at (440) 853-1038 and we can help you with your accommodations.
June 24 & 25
NYC Torch Club (NYU Campus)
18 Waverly Place
New York, NY 10003
Because of the diversity of hotels found in the area, PGS Energy Training will not be holding a block of sleeping rooms with one particular hotel. Should you need a list of local hotels in the area, please contact us at (440) 853-1038 and we can help you with your accommodations.
Registration Fee and Discounts

Register Today! and invest in your future. The price for this comprehensive two-day seminar is $1,595 (USD).

Early Bird Special:
Seminar Date(s) Cutoff Date Additional Savings
Houston - May 28 & 29 May 8, 2014 $200 per order
New York - June 24 & 25 Jun 4, 2014 $200 per order
Register soon to get Early Bird pricing. A limited number of Early Bird seats are available.
  • Additional attendees and government employees receive a 10% discount.
  • Members of TOGA, AIPRO, INGAA or IOGA-NY receive a 15% discount. Please call (440) 853-1038.
  • Sign up for 4 or more classroom seats during the same month and all attendees will receive a 20% total discount.
    (If you plan to register 4 or more classroom seats for the same seminar, but want attendees to pay by separate credit cards, register one party now and mention this fact in the "Comments" section of the registration form. We will manually subtract the 20% discount from the first registrant's seminar fee and will call you to obtain the credit cards and registration information for your other attendees in order to give them their 20% discount. If applicable the Early Bird discount of either $200 or $100 will be divided evenly between all participants.) Please call (440) 853-1038 for more information.
    Special pricing is available for groups of 5 or more. Please call Janice Ohmura at (440) 853-1038.
Payment and Cancellations

Payment is due prior to the start of the seminar by Visa, Master Card, American Express, Diners Club, or corporate check. Seminar fees will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made. Please make checks payable to "PGS Energy Training" 26 Teal Lane · Hilton Head Island, SC 29926. Cancellations can be made up to five (5) business days prior to the start of the seminar for a full refund. No refunds will be made thereafter, but a one year full seminar credit will be given toward future workshops upon receipt of $175 which will used to help offset the non-refundable food, beverage, manual and other expenses incurred by PGS. Substitutions may be made at any time. If PGS needs to cancel a seminar due to instructor unavailability, lack of attendance or other unforeseen reason, you will be offered the choice of rescheduling for another seminar, a seminar credit, or a refund. PGS will not be responsible for any airline, hotel or other fees in such situations. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (440) 853-1038.

CPE Credits in Specialized Knowledge & Applications

This live group seminar is eligible for 11.0 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit. One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity. You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.

PGS Energy Training is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.learningmarket.org. CPAs interested in attending any seminars should contact our offices for details on CPE credits granted and any prerequisite requirements. PGS telephone seminars are eligible for CPE credits only if seminar participants use the printed seminar slides - not the Internet posted slides.

PGS Energy Training is registered with GARP as an Approved Provider of continuing professional education (CPE) credits. PGS Energy Training has determined that this program qualifies for 11.0 credit hours. If you are a GARP CPE participant, please record this activity in your Credit Tracker at www.garp.org/cpe. Please inform PGS Energy Training that you are a GARP CPE participant upon seminar registration.

The Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) is a not-for-profit membership association dedicated to preparing professionals and organizations for making better-informed risk decisions. GARP’s membership represents more than 150,000 risk management practitioners and researchers at academic institutions, banks, corporations, government agencies, and investment management firms in 195 countries and territories. GARP administers the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and Energy Risk Professional (ERP) Exams – certifications recognized by risk professionals worldwide. Visit www.garp.org/cpe.

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