Energy Training & Electric Power Classroom Seminars
Fundamentals of Energy Statistical Analysis
A Two-Day Classroom Seminar (CPE Approved)
New York, NY - September 23 & 24, NYC Torch Club (NYU Campus)
Companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and this risk needs to be properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing."
Operational decisions, capital investment, risk management, strategic positioning, litigation, and marketing are some of the many areas that require accurate information and analysis founded on sound statistical principles. This comprehensive two-day program is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization.
This is a hands on seminar you are encouraged but not required to bring a computer. Click here to register.
What You Will Learn
The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking in Deregulated Markets (2.0 hours)
Means vs. Standard Deviations
Application: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation
Example 1-Confidence Intervals for Calculating Value at Risk - VaR
Example 2-Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service in a Deregulated Retail Electricity Market
Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge (2.0 hours)
Univariate and Multivariate Analysis
Testing for Equal Means and Variances
Application: Benchmarking to Industry Standards
Example 1-Comparing O&M Expenditure to that of Peer Facilities
Example 2- Estimating the "Economies of Scale" (marginal cost reduction) Associated with Multiple Unit Generation Facilities
The Energy Forecasting Toolbox (2 hours)
Historical Trend Analysis
Univariate Time Series
Multivariate Time Series
Engineering or Process Models
Time Series Step-by-Step (2hours)
Adjusting for Stationarity
Correlation and Partial Correlation Functions
Model Specification and Selection
Estimated Parameters and Standard Errors
Testing for White Noise
Forecasting Future Values
Additional Seasonality Considerations
Example 1-Statistical Reports that everyone can understand
Introduction to Real Options Analysis (2 hours)
Details of Option Model Implementation
Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models
Application: Real Option Valuation
Example of Valuing The Option of Real-Time Forward Load Reduction
Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices
Measuring Forward Volatility
Adapting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Energy Industry
Application: Optimal Hedging using Statistical Triggers
Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility
Example 1- Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options
Example 2- Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options
Your Instructor - New York
Kenneth Skinner, PhD - VP and Chief Operating Officer, Integral Analytics
Kenneth Skinner, Ph.D. is Vice President of Risk & Evaluation Products for Integral Analytics, an analytical software and management consulting firm focused on operational, planning, and market research solutions. Dr. Skinner has over 20 years’ experience in evaluation and risk measurement, having worked as an energy consultant with PHB Hagler Bailly and Financial Times (FT) Energy, and as the Derivative Structuring Manager for the retail energy supplier Sempra Energy Solutions. He has his Ph.D. from Colorado School of Mines, in Mineral Economics, with an emphasis in Operations Research, an MBA from Regis University and his BS in Engineering from Letourneau University.
Dr. Skinner is a nationally recognized expert in economic evaluation and modeling of energy assets including energy storage, distribution and generation, efficiency and demand response, renewable energy alternatives, financial derivatives and structured contracts using net present value, econometric and statistical methods, optimization principles, and real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is currently the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal and is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.
Who Should Attend this Seminar
Among those who will benefit from this seminar include energy and electric power executives; attorneys; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators; engineers; and corporate planners. Types of companies that typically attend this program include energy producers and marketers; utilities; banks & financial houses; industrial companies; accounting, consulting & law firms; municipal utilities; government regulators and electric generators.
Prerequisites and Advance Preparation
This fundamental level group live seminar has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required before the seminar.
Basic level. This fundamental course begins with basic material and then proceeds to the intermediate level.
Why choose PGS?
PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs. View Past Seminar Attendees
Hotel and Seminar InformationThis seminar will be held at the hotel listed below or can be conducted on-site at your facilities. The seminar will start promptly at 8:00 AM and will finish at 4:00 PM on the first day. On the second day, the seminar will resume at 8:00 AM and will finish at 12:00 PM. The program includes continental breakfast, lunch, and coffee/cookie breaks. Attendees also receive a professionally produced seminar manual that can serve as a valuable office reference. Dress is casual for all seminars
September 23 & 24
NYC Torch Club (NYU Campus)
18 Waverly Place
New York, NY 10003
Because of the diversity of hotels found in the area, PGS Energy Training will not be holding a block of sleeping rooms with one particular hotel. Should you need a list of local hotels in the area, please contact us at (440) 853-1038 and we can help you with your accommodations.
Registration Fee and Discounts
Register Today!. The price for this comprehensive two-day seminar is $1,595 (USD).Early Bird Special: Register on or before Jan 30, 2013 and save an additional $200 per order!
Register soon to get Early Bird pricing. A limited number of Early Bird seats are available.
Payment and Cancellations
Payment is due prior to the start of the seminar by Visa, Master Card, American Express, Diners Club, or corporate check. Seminar fees will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made. Please make checks payable to "PGS Energy Training" 26 Teal Lane · Hilton Head Island, SC 29926. Cancellations can be made up to five (5) business days prior to the start of the seminar for a full refund. No refunds will be made thereafter, but a one year full seminar credit will be given toward future workshops upon receipt of $175 which will used to help offset the non-refundable food, beverage, manual and other expenses incurred by PGS. Substitutions may be made at any time. If PGS needs to cancel a seminar due to instructor unavailability, lack of attendance or other unforeseen reason, you will be offered the choice of rescheduling for another seminar, a seminar credit, or a refund. PGS will not be responsible for any airline, hotel or other fees in such situations. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (440) 853-1038.
CPE Credits in Specialized Knowledge & Applications
This live group seminar is eligible for 11.0 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit. One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity. You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.
PGS Energy Training is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.learningmarket.org. CPAs interested in attending any seminars should contact our offices for details on CPE credits granted and any prerequisite requirements. PGS telephone seminars are eligible for CPE credits only if seminar participants use the printed seminar slides - not the Internet posted slides.
PGS Energy Training is registered with GARP as an Approved Provider of continuing professional education (CPE) credits. PGS Energy Training has determined that this program qualifies for 11.0 credit hours. If you are a GARP CPE participant, please record this activity in your Credit Tracker at www.garp.org/cpe. Please inform PGS Energy Training that you are a GARP CPE participant upon seminar registration.
The Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) is a not-for-profit membership association dedicated to preparing professionals and organizations for making better-informed risk decisions. GARP’s membership represents more than 150,000 risk management practitioners and researchers at academic institutions, banks, corporations, government agencies, and investment management firms in 195 countries and territories. GARP administers the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and Energy Risk Professional (ERP) Exams – certifications recognized by risk professionals worldwide. Visit www.garp.org/cpe.