IN-PERSON CLASSROOM SEMINARS

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Three Days: Energy Statistical Analysis Seminar and Workshop


A Three-Day Classroom Seminar (CPE Approved)

Register Soon to get Early Bird Pricing.

This course adds a third day to the popular Energy Statistical Analysis seminar to allow the time needed for a more in-depth discussion and explanation of many important topics. Additionally, this three-day course is designed as a hand-on workshop. Not only will you learn about practical energy statistical techniques and tools, but you will practice building statistical models in a workshop format.

Learn why companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and how risk and value are properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing."

This comprehensive three-day program is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets. Through a combination of lecture and hands-on exercises that you will complete using your own laptop, participants will learn and practice key energy applications of statistical modeling. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization.

A laptop is required.

What You Will Learn
  • Correlation & regression analysis; real option analysis; the Black-Scholes option pricing model; binomial trees; GARCH Models; the measurement of energy price risk; and how to use correlation and regression analysis for maintaining a competitive edge.
  • Workshop exercises will have you building forecast models including time series and financial engineering price models including Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion Jump Diffusion.
  • How to minimize price risk through operational design flexibility; measure forward price volatility and adapt Value-at-Risk concepts (VaR) for the Energy Industry.
  • Workshop exercises will have you building VaR models, calculating volatility and simulating complex energy projects.
  • Use actual case studies to examine 1) how Monte Carlo simulation is used to value renewable energy, demand response programs and energy storage projects; 2) bench-marking techniques used for estimating the incremental cost savings of expanding existing operations; and 3) real-option value of generation assets and power purchase agreements.
  • Actual workshop problems and case studies will look at statistical applications and tools most frequently used in the energy industry.
  • Learn the four manage statistical metrics.
Seminar Agenda

DAY ONE:

The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking for Energy Applications

·         Basics of data science - Information from Data

·         Descriptive Statistics, Means, Standard Deviations, Distribution Shapes

·         Frequency Distributions and Confidence Intervals

·         Implications of the Empirical Rule, Transformations and Probability

Fundamental Modeling Tools and Simulation

Exercise: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation to Evaluate Project Value and Risk

 

Application: Calculating Value at Risk (VaR)

·         The Linear Method and

·         The Quadratic Method

·         Historic Simulation Method

·         Monte Carlo Method

 

Exercise: Calculating VaR Using Three Different Methods

 

Application: Hedging Energy Exposure

·         Understanding the "Greeks"

·         How and when to Hedge

·         Delta Hedging

·         Dynamic Hedging

·         Gamma Hedging

 

Application: Component Risk Analysis

·         Payoff Diagrams

·         Portfolio VaR Diagram

·         CAPM, RAROC and the Sharp Ratio

·         Calculating Load Following Supply Risk

·         Layered Hedging using Statistical Triggers

 

Exercise: Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service

Exercise: Measuring Load Following Supply Risk

Exercise: Measuring Intermittent Renewable Supply Risk

 

Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge

·         Univariate and Multivariate Analysis

·         Hypotheses Testing

·         Testing for Equal Means and Variances

·         Control Charts

DAY TWO:

The Energy Forecasting Toolbox

·         Historical Trend Analysis

·         Univariate Time Series

·         Multivariate Time Series

·         Econometric Models

·         Bayesian Estimation

·         End-Use Models

·         Engineering or Process Models

·         Optimization

·         Network Models

·         Simulation

·         Game Theory

·         Scenarios

·         Surveys

 

Case Study: Statistical Reports that Everyone Can Understand

Case Study: Benchmarking to Industry Standards- GTS Steel vs. KCPL

Exercise: Building Regressions and Forecasting, PDF's, CDF's and Payoff Diagrams

Exercise: Calculating Hedge Ratios, Constructing an Energy Hedge and a Weather Hedge

Exercise: Using Forecasts in Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Risk Premium

 

DAY Three:

Introduction to Real Options Analysis

·         Details of Option Model Implementation

·         Real Options and Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis

·         Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices

·         Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models

·         Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion

 

Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility

Application: Real Option Value of Demand Response and the Smart Grid

Exercise: Calculating Volatility

Exercise: Simulating Prices using GBM and Mean Reversion Monte Carlo Models  

Exercise: Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options

Exercise: Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options

 

Hotel and Seminar Information
This seminar will be held at the hotel listed below or can be conducted on-site at your facilities. The seminar will start promptly at 8:00 AM and will finish at 4:00 PM on the first and second day. On the third day, the seminar will resume at 8:00 AM and will finish at 12:00 PM. The program includes continental breakfast, lunch-first and second day only, and coffee breaks. Attendees also receive a professionally produced seminar manual that can serve as a valuable office reference. Dress is casual for all seminars
COVID 19 Information: Please click here for the PGS Covid-19 policy. You can confirm each hotel's specific COVID 19 policy using the link(s) provided below.
Registration Fee and Discounts
The price for this comprehensive three-day seminar is $2,950 (USD).
Register online or Call (440) 853-1038.
  • Additional attendees and government employees receive a 10% discount.
  • Register 4 or more attendees and receive 20% Off. Special pricing is available for groups of 5 or more.
    If you want attendees to pay with separate credit cards or have other questions, please call (440) 853-1038 for assistance.
Payments and Cancellations
Payment is due prior to the start of the seminar by Visa, Master Card, American Express, or corporate check. Seminar fees will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made. Please make checks payable to "PGS Energy Training" 26 Teal Lane • Hilton Head Island, SC 29926. Cancellations will result in a credit that is good for 2 years which can be transferred to a colleague. Substitutions may be made at any time. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (440) 853-1038.
CPE Credits in Specialized Knowledge

This live group seminar is eligible for 18.0 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit. One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity. You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.

PGS Energy Training is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.nasbaregistry.org. CPAs interested in attending any seminars should contact our offices for details on CPE credits granted and any prerequisite requirements.
PGS Energy Training is registered with GARP as an Approved Provider of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) credits. If you are a Certified FRM or ERP, please record this activity in your Credit Tracker at http://www.garp.org/cpd. Please inform PGS Energy Training that you are a GARP CPE participant upon seminar registration.

The Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) is a not-for-profit membership association dedicated to preparing professionals and organizations for making better-informed risk decisions. GARP's membership represents more than 150,000 risk management practitioners and researchers at academic institutions, banks, corporations, government agencies, and investment management firms in 195 countries and territories. GARP administers the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and Energy Risk Professional (ERP) Exams – certifications recognized by risk professionals worldwide. Visit www.garp.org/cpd.
Who Should Attend

Among those who will benefit from this seminar include energy and electric power executives; attorneys; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators; engineers; and corporate planners. Types of companies that typically attend this program include energy producers and marketers; utilities; banks & financial houses; industrial companies; accounting, consulting & law firms; municipal utilities; government regulators and electric generators.

Prerequisites and Advance Preparation

This fundamental level group live seminar has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required before the seminar.

Why Choose PGS?

PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs.

Program Level & Delivery Method
Basic level. This fundamental course begins with basic material and then proceeds to the intermediate level. Delivery method is "Group-Live.”