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Intermediate Applications of Energy Statistics--A 1/2 Day Online Seminar

On-Demand Recorded Seminar plus Live Q&A - Available April 3rd (72 hour access)

How This Online Seminar Works

Operational decisions, capital investment, risk management, strategic positioning, litigation, and marketing are some of the many areas that require accurate information and analysis founded on sound statistical principles. Building on the introductory statistical concepts, this course is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets by examining several applications of statistical analysis. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization. This course is an intermediate level course covering several applications and prepares the participant for the application specific advanced courses offered in this series.

What You Will Learn

  1. Using real option analysis, the Black-Scholes option pricing model and binomial trees for valuing commodity dependent assets, and GARCH models to measure energy price risk.
  2. How to minimize price risk through operational design Flexibility; measure forward price volatility and adapt Value-at-Risk concepts (VaR) for the Energy Industry.
  3. How Monte Carlo simulation is used to value Demand Response programs; benchmarking techniques used for estimating the incremental cost savings of expanding existing operations; and the real-option value of generation assets.

Seminar Agenda

  • Statistical Reports that everyone can understand
  • Using charts to create information from data
  • Benchmarking to Industry Standards
  • Application: Comparing O&M Expenditure to that of Peer Facilities
  • Application: Estimating the "Economies of Scale" (marginal cost reduction) Associated with Multiple Unit Generation Facilities
  • Measuring Forward Volatility in Commodity Markets
  • Adapting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Hedging Commodity Price Risk for the Energy Industry
  • Application: Calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR)
  • Application: Optimal Hedging using Statistical Triggers
  • Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility
  • Introduction to Real Options Analysis
  • Details of Option Model Implementation
  • Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty in Historical Prices
  • Building pricing models
  • Geometric Brownian Motion
  • Mean Reversion Jump Diffusion
  • Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models
  • Building the Engineering Valuation (Option) model
  • Applications in Real Option Valuation
  • Application: Valuing The Option of Real-Time Forward Load Reduction
  • Application: Valuing Combustion Turbines as a Real Options
  • Application: Valuing the Injection and Withdraw Opportunities of Gas Storage

Who Should Attend this Seminar

The course is designed for those who desire a fundamental understanding of this vital topic including utility employees, commission staff, energy service professionals, and others. The course is designed to provide a solid understanding of the principles and terminology of EE and DR programs, and provide an introduction to the advanced analysis techniques and models that are used by program planners and evaluators. The course is not overly analytical, but rather summarizes these important techniques used by DSM professionals.

Prerequisites and Advance Preparation

This seminar assumes a fundamental knowledge of statistics.


Why Choose PGS?

PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs.


Ken Skinner
VP and Chief Operating Officer, Integral Analytics

Kenneth Skinner, Ph.D. is Vice President of Risk & Evaluation Products for Integral Analytics, an analytical software and management consulting firm focused on operational, planning, and market research solutions. Dr. Skinner has over 20 years’ experience in evaluation and risk measurement, having worked as an energy consultant with PHB Hagler Bailly and Financial Times (FT) Energy, and as the Derivative Structuring Manager for the retail energy supplier Sempra Energy Solutions. He has his Ph.D. from Colorado School of Mines, in Mineral Economics, with an emphasis in Operations Research, an MBA from Regis University and his BS in Engineering from Letourneau University.

Dr. Skinner is a nationally recognized expert in economic evaluation and modeling of energy assets including energy storage, distribution and generation, efficiency and demand response, renewable energy alternatives, financial derivatives and structured contracts using net present value, econometric and statistical methods, optimization principles, and real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is currently the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal and is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.

Seminar Price

$395 for the first attendee, $245 for the second attendee, and $95 for each attendee thereafter
for either the live or on-demand version of this seminar.

Payment and Cancellations

Payment is required prior to seminaaccess. Payment can be made by Visa, Master Card, American Express, or corporate check. Seminar purchases will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made.

Cancellations for these online seminar series can be made before seminar access instructions are sent by PGS and will result in a credit. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (440) 853-1038.
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