Online Seminars

Advanced Energy Risk Management Calculations

Live Online Seminar: January 15th 1:00 pm - 4:30 pm (ET)
On-Demand Recording Available January 22nd (72 hour access)

How These Online Seminars Work

Value-at-risk or VaR has become the industry standard for measuring uncertainty. This course takes the participants from the basic statistics underlying value-at-risk to the most sophisticated techniques used by energy companies today. The focus is on how to make value-at-risk work in practice-how to design, implement and use scalable production value-at-risk measures on real trading floors. Real-world challenges are discussed relating to measurement and computation of energy related uncertainty and risk.

This proven online seminar features the same material used in the popular PGS in-person classroom training program. Register today and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already benefited from an in-depth PGS seminar.

What You Will Learn

  1. How VaR is calculated in practice.
  2. How correlation and hedging work together to manage risk.
  3. Why different calculation approaches are needed for different applications.
  4. How the underlying statistics can make or break energy risk calculations.
  5. How value and risk are related and how both are described by probability distributions

Seminar Agenda

  • What is VaR, TVaR, PVaR, Earnings at Risk and why they are needed?
  • The three approaches to calculating VaR - model-building, historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation- advantages and disadvantages.
  • How to describe portfolio risk using delta, gamma, and vega.
  • Portfolios and volatility - getting the units right.
  • How to calculate VaR using historic simulation.
  • How to calculate VaR using variance-covariance (model-building) methods: 1) The linear model (delta); 2) The quadratic model (delta - gamma); 3) How to calculate VaR using Monte Carlo simulation.
  • How to Stress Test and Back Test the VaR calculation.
  • Reporting change in Daily VaR, change in 5-Day VaR Moving Average, and change in the Stress Test extreme value over a historic time horizon.
  • How to calculate VaR using Monte Carlo simulation for physical assets and corporate portfolio risk.
  • How to build GBM, Mean Reversion Jump Diffusion, and GARCH pricing models to measure uncertain price risk.
  • Example of using Monte Carlo to measure the value and risk of an electric generator and natural gas storage assets.
  • Using the Efficiency Frontier and the Sharp Ratio to determine VaR limits and risk tolerance.

Who Should Attend this Seminar

The course is designed for those who desire a fundamental understanding of this vital topic including utility employees, commission staff, energy service professionals, and others. The course is designed to provide a solid understanding of the principles and terminology of EE and DR programs, and provide an introduction to the advanced analysis techniques and models that are used by program planners and evaluators. The course is not overly analytical, but rather summarizes these important techniques used by DSM professionals.

Prerequisites and Advance Preparation

This seminar assumes a fundamental knowledge of statistics and energy risk managent terminology and concepts.

 

Why Choose PGS?

PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs.

Instructor

Ken Skinner
VP and Chief Operating Officer, Integral Analytics

Kenneth Skinner, Ph.D. is Vice President of Risk & Evaluation Products for Integral Analytics, an analytical software and management consulting firm focused on operational, planning, and market research solutions. Dr. Skinner has over 20 years’ experience in evaluation and risk measurement, having worked as an energy consultant with PHB Hagler Bailly and Financial Times (FT) Energy, and as the Derivative Structuring Manager for the retail energy supplier Sempra Energy Solutions. He has his Ph.D. from Colorado School of Mines, in Mineral Economics, with an emphasis in Operations Research, an MBA from Regis University and his BS in Engineering from Letourneau University.

Dr. Skinner is a nationally recognized expert in economic evaluation and modeling of energy assets including energy storage, distribution and generation, efficiency and demand response, renewable energy alternatives, financial derivatives and structured contracts using net present value, econometric and statistical methods, optimization principles, and real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is currently the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal and is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.

Seminar Price

$395 for the first attendee, $195 for the second attendee, and $95 for each attendee thereafter
for either the live or on-demand version of this seminar.

Payment and Cancellations

Payment is required prior to seminar attendance. Payment can be made by Visa, Master Card, or American Express. Seminar purchases will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made.

Live seminar registrations can be cancelled for a full refund up to 5:00 PM (U.S. Eastern Time) two (2) business days before the scheduled seminar date. For example if the live seminar is on Thursday then the cancellation would need to occur by 5:00 PM Eastern Time on the Tuesday before the seminar. No refunds will be made thereafter, but a streamed recording of the live seminar can be provided. Attendee substitutions may be made at any time. 

Due to the nature of a recorded event, no refunds can be made for on-demand recorded seminars. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (440) 853-1038.

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