In-Depth Seminar: Energy Statistical Analysis Seminar and Workshop
Comprehensive 2.5 day on-demand workshop with Live Q&A
Available February 26th (30 day access)
This comprehensive Seven module program is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets. Through a combination of lecture and hands-on exercises that you will complete using your own laptop, participants will learn and practice key energy applications of statistical modeling. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization.
Learn why companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and how risk and value are properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied, and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing."
This seven module training is designed as a hand-on workshop. Not only will you learn about practical energy statistical techniques and tools, but you will practice building statistical models in a workshop format. A laptop is required.
What You Will Learn
MODULE ONE: The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking for Energy Applications
· Basics of data science – Information from Data
· Descriptive Statistics, Means, Standard Deviations, Distribution Shapes
· Frequency Distributions and Confidence Intervals
· Implications of the Empirical Rule, Transformations and Probability
· Univariate and Multivariate Analysis
· Hypotheses Testing
· Testing for Equal Means and Variances
· Control Charts
Application: Machine Leaning and Data Science
MODULE TWO: Applications in Calculating Value at Risk (VaR)
· The Linear Method
· The Quadratic Method
· Historic Simulation Method
· Monte Carlo Method
Exercise: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation to Evaluate Project Value and Risk
Exercise: Calculating VaR Using Three Different Methods
MODULE THREE: Applications in Hedging Energy Exposure
· Understanding the "Greeks"
· How and when to Hedge
· Delta Hedging
· Dynamic Hedging
· Gamma Hedging
Exercise: Calculating Hedge Ratios, Constructing an Energy Hedge and a Weather Hedge
MODULE FOUR: Applications in Component Risk Analysis
· Payoff Diagrams
· Portfolio VaR Diagram
· CAPM, RAROC and the Sharp Ratio
· Calculating Load Following Supply Risk
· Layered Hedging using Statistical Triggers
Exercise: Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service
Exercise: Measuring Load Following Supply Risk
Exercise: Measuring Intermittent Renewable Supply Risk
MODULE FIVE: The Energy Forecasting Toolbox
· Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge
· Historical Trend Analysis
· Univariate Time Series
· Multivariate Time Series
· Econometric Models
· Bayesian Estimation
· End-Use Models
· Engineering or Process Models
· Network Models
· Game Theory
Case Study: Statistical Reports that Everyone Can Understand
Case Study: Benchmarking to Industry Standards- GTS Steel vs. KCPL
Exercise: Building Regressions and Forecasting, PDF’s, CDF’s and Payoff Diagrams
Extra Credit: R Basics, Python Basics in Energy Statistics
MODULE SIX: Fundamental Modeling Tools and Simulation
· Monte Carlo Simulation to Forecast Price Volatility
· Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices
· Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion
· Curve Fitting
Exercise: Calculating Volatility
Exercise: Simulating Prices using GBM and Mean Reversion Monte Carlo Models
Exercise: Comparing Engineering Models, Black Scholes, Monte Carlo and Excel Functions
Exercise: Using Forecasts in Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Risk Premium
MODULE SEVEN: Introduction to Real Options Analysis
· Details of Option Model Implementation
· Real Options and Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis
· Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models
Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility
Application: Real Option Value of Demand Response and the Smart Grid
Exercise: Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options
Exercise: Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options
Who Should Attend
Among those who will benefit from this seminar include energy and electric power executives; attorneys; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators; engineers; and corporate planners. Types of companies that typically attend this program include energy producers and marketers; utilities; banks & financial houses; industrial companies; accounting, consulting & law firms; municipal utilities; government regulators and electric generators.
Prerequisites and Advance Preparation
This online training program has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required.
Why Choose PGS?
PGS training programs are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register today, and join the over 10,000 industry professionals who trust PGS with their energy training needs.
Ken Skinner, Ph.D.
Dr. Skinner is a Vice President for Integral Analytics Inc. (IA), an energy conservation focused analytical planning software and consulting firm. IA is fully owned by Willdan, an industry-leading energy solutions provider and sustainability consultant. Dr. Skinner supports core energy risk management and sustainability services including electric grid optimization, integrated resource planning, design and implementation of integrated demand side projects and distributed energy resources. He is part of a team specializing in energy engineering, renewable generation, electric vehicle fleets and infrastructure, program management, microgrids, financing, data analysis, software development, and other fields.
Dr. Skinner has over 20 years of energy industry experience developing energy conservation and commodity supply strategies involving portfolio risk management, hedging strategies, and least-cost supply opportunities. Having worked as an energy consultant, Dr. Skinner has significant experience in economic analysis and modeling of distributed energy projects, forward energy prices, financial derivatives, and valuation of energy assets using econometric analysis, statistical methods, optimization principles, real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is widely published having served as the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal. He is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.
On-Demand Access Time
The on-demand training presentation is available for a total of 30 days from the time the training program is first viewed. After 30 days, your access to the online presentation will expire. However the PDF training program slides and other materials you receive are yours to keep.
2.5 day on-demand seminar with Live Q&A
$2,395 for the first attendee, $1,995 for the second attendee, and $1,695 for each attendee thereafter
Special pricing is available for groups of 10 or more. Please email or call (440) 853-1038.
Payment and CancellationsPayment is required prior to training program access. Payment can be made by Visa, Master Card, American Express, or corporate check. Your credit card will be charged at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made.
Cancellations for online training programs can be made before the program access instructions are sent by PGS, and cancellations will result in a credit. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (440) 853-1038.