Advanced Energy Risk Management Calculations

How this online course works

Value-at-risk or VaR has become the industry standard for measuring uncertainty. This online training program takes the participants from the basic statistics underlying value-at-risk to the most sophisticated techniques used by energy companies today. The focus is on how to make value-at-risk work in practice-how to design, implement and use scalable production value-at-risk measures on real trading floors. Real-world challenges are discussed relating to measurement and computation of energy related uncertainty and risk.

This proven online training program features the same material used in the popular PGS in-person classroom seminar. Register today and join the over 10,000 industry professionals who trust PGS for their energy training needs.

What You Will Learn

1. How VaR is calculated in practice.
2. How correlation and hedging work together to manage risk.
3. Why different calculation approaches are needed for different applications.
4. How the underlying statistics can make or break energy risk calculations.
5. How value and risk are related and how both are described by probability distributions

Seminar Agenda

• What is VaR, TVaR, PVaR, Earnings at Risk and why they are needed?
• The three approaches to calculating VaR - model-building, historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation- advantages and disadvantages.
• How to describe portfolio risk using delta, gamma, and vega.
• Portfolios and volatility - getting the units right.
• How to calculate VaR using historic simulation.
• How to calculate VaR using variance-covariance (model-building) methods: 1) The linear model (delta); 2) The quadratic model (delta - gamma); 3) How to calculate VaR using Monte Carlo simulation.
• How to Stress Test and Back Test the VaR calculation.
• Reporting change in Daily VaR, change in 5-Day VaR Moving Average, and change in the Stress Test extreme value over a historic time horizon.
• How to calculate VaR using Monte Carlo simulation for physical assets and corporate portfolio risk.
• How to build GBM, Mean Reversion Jump Diffusion, and GARCH pricing models to measure uncertain price risk.
• Example of using Monte Carlo to measure the value and risk of an electric generator and natural gas storage assets.
• Using the Efficiency Frontier and the Sharp Ratio to determine VaR limits and risk tolerance.

Who Should Attend

The training program is designed for those who desire a fundamental understanding of this vital topic including utility employees, commission staff, energy service professionals, and others. The training program is designed to provide a solid understanding of the principles and terminology of EE and DR programs, and provide an introduction to the advanced analysis techniques and models that are used by program planners and evaluators. The training program is not overly analytical, but rather summarizes these important techniques used by DSM professionals.

Prerequisites and Advance Preparation

This online training program assumes a fundamental knowledge of statistics and energy risk managent terminology and concepts.

Why Choose PGS?

PGS training programs are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register today, and join the over 10,000 industry professionals who trust PGS with their energy training needs.

2Instructor

Ken Skinner, Ph.D.
Vice President Integral Analytics Inc.

Dr. Skinner is a Vice President for Integral Analytics Inc. (IA), an energy conservation focused analytical planning software and consulting firm. IA is fully owned by Willdan, an industry-leading energy solutions provider and sustainability consultant. Dr. Skinner supports core energy risk management and sustainability services including electric grid optimization, integrated resource planning, design and implementation of integrated demand side projects and distributed energy resources. He is part of a team specializing in energy engineering, renewable generation, electric vehicle fleets and infrastructure, program management, microgrids, financing, data analysis, software development, and other fields.

Dr. Skinner has over 20 years of energy industry experience developing energy conservation and commodity supply strategies involving portfolio risk management, hedging strategies, and least-cost supply opportunities. Having worked as an energy consultant, Dr. Skinner has significant experience in economic analysis and modeling of distributed energy projects, forward energy prices, financial derivatives, and valuation of energy assets using econometric analysis, statistical methods, optimization principles, real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is widely published having served as the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal. He is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.

On-Demand Access Time

The on-demand training presentation is available for a total of 7 days from the time the training program is first viewed. After 7 days, your access to the online presentation will expire. However the PDF training program slides and other materials you receive are yours to keep.

Program Pricing

$395 for the first attendee, $335 for the second attendee, and $295 for each attendee thereafter

Special pricing is available for groups of 10 or more. Please email or call (440) 853-1038.

Payment and Cancellations