- Correlation & regression analysis; real option analysis; the Black-Scholes option pricing model; binomial trees; GARCH Models; the measurement of energy price risk; and how to use correlation and regression analysis for maintaining a competitive edge.
- Workshop exercises will have you building forecast models including time series and financial engineering price models including Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion Jump Diffusion.
- How to minimize price risk through operational design flexibility; measure forward price volatility and adapt Value-at-Risk concepts (VaR) for the Energy Industry.
- Workshop exercises will have you building VaR models, calculating volatility and simulating complex energy projects.
- Use actual case studies to examine 1) how Monte Carlo simulation is used to value renewable energy, demand response programs and energy storage projects; 2) bench-marking techniques used for estimating the incremental cost savings of expanding existing operations; and 3) real-option value of generation assets and power purchase agreements.
- Actual workshop problems and case studies will look at statistical applications and tools most frequently used in the energy industry.
- Learn the four manage statistical metrics.
- The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking for Energy Applications
- Basics of data science - Information from Data
- Descriptive Statistics, Means, Standard Deviations, Distribution Shapes
- Frequency Distributions and Confidence Intervals
- Implications of the Empirical Rule, Transformations and Probability
- Fundamental Modeling Tools and Simulation
- Exercise: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation to Evaluate Project Value and Risk
- Application: Calculating Value at Risk (VaR)
- The Linear Method and
- The Quadratic Method
- Historic Simulation Method
- Monte Carlo Method
- Exercise: Calculating VaR Using Three Different Methods
- Application: Hedging Energy Exposure
- Understanding the "Greeks"
- How and when to Hedge
- Delta Hedging
- Dynamic Hedging
- Gamma Hedging
- Application: Component Risk Analysis
- Payoff Diagrams
- Portfolio VaR Diagram
- CAPM, RAROC and the Sharp Ratio
- Calculating Load Following Supply Risk
- Layered Hedging using Statistical Triggers
- Exercise: Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service
- Exercise: Measuring Load Following Supply Risk
- Exercise: Measuring Intermittent Renewable Supply Risk
- Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge
- Univariate and Multivariate Analysis
- Hypotheses Testing
- Testing for Equal Means and Variances
- Control Charts
- The Energy Forecasting Toolbox
- Historical Trend Analysis
- Univariate Time Series
- Multivariate Time Series
- Econometric Models
- Bayesian Estimation
- End-Use Models
- Engineering or Process Models
- Network Models
- Game Theory
- Case Study: Statistical Reports that Everyone Can Understand
- Case Study: Benchmarking to Industry Standards- GTS Steel vs. KCPL
- Exercise: Building Regressions and Forecasting, PDF's, CDF's and Payoff Diagrams
- Exercise: Calculating Hedge Ratios, Constructing an Energy Hedge and a Weather Hedge
- Exercise: Using Forecasts in Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Risk Premium
- Introduction to Real Options Analysis
- Details of Option Model Implementation
- Real Options and Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis
- Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices
- Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models
- Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion
- Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility
- Application: Real Option Value of Demand Response and the Smart Grid
- Exercise: Calculating Volatility
- Exercise: Simulating Prices using GBM and Mean Reversion Monte Carlo Models
- Exercise: Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options
- Exercise: Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options
Kenneth Skinner, Ph. D. -- Vice President Integral Analytics Inc.
Dr. Skinner is a Vice President for Integral Analytics Inc. (IA), an energy conservation focused analytical planning software and consulting firm. IA is fully owned by Willdan, an industry-leading energy solutions provider and sustainability consultant. Dr. Skinner supports core energy risk management and sustainability services including electric grid optimization, integrated resource planning, design and implementation of integrated demand side projects and distributed energy resources. He is part of a team specializing in energy engineering, renewable generation, electric vehicle fleets and infrastructure, program management, microgrids, financing, data analysis, software development, and other fields.
Dr. Skinner has over 20 years of energy industry experience developing energy conservation and commodity supply strategies involving portfolio risk management, hedging strategies, and least-cost supply opportunities. Having worked as an energy consultant, Dr. Skinner has significant experience in economic analysis and modeling of distributed energy projects, forward energy prices, financial derivatives, and valuation of energy assets using econometric analysis, statistical methods, optimization principles, real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is widely published having served as the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal. He is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.
This seminar will be held at the hotel listed below or can be conducted on-site at your facilities. The seminar will start promptly at 8:00 AM and will finish at 4:00 PM on the first and second day. On the third day, the seminar will resume at 8:00 AM and will finish at 12:00 PM. The program includes continental breakfast, lunch-first and second day only, and coffee breaks. On the third day a continental breakfast and a coffee break are provided.. Attendees also receive a professionally produced seminar manual that can serve as a valuable office reference. Dress is casual for all seminars.
COVID 19 Information:
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for the PGS Covid-19 policy.
You can confirm each hotel's specific COVID 19 policy using the link(s) provided below.
October 12, 13 & 14
Homewood Suites by Hilton Houston Near the Galleria
2950 Sage Road
, TX 77056
December 7, 8 & 9
Homewood Suites by Hilton Houston Near the Galleria
2950 Sage Road
, TX 77056
The price for this comprehensive
Save $200 per seminar order if you register before the cutoff date.
Houston - December 7, 8 & 9
Cutoff date for discount: November 17, 2022
- Additional attendees and government employees receive a 10% discount.
Register 4 or more attendees and receive 20% Off.
Special pricing is available for groups of 5 or more.
If you want attendees to pay with separate credit cards or have other questions,
please call (440) 853-1038 for assistance.
Payment is due prior to the start of the seminar by Visa, Master Card, American Express, or corporate check.
Seminar fees will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made.
Please make checks payable to "PGS Energy Training" 26 Teal Lane • Hilton Head Island, SC 29926.
Cancellations will result in a credit that is good for 2 years which can be transferred to a colleague.
Substitutions may be made at any time.
For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (440) 853-1038.
This live group seminar is eligible for 18.0 CPE credits.
Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit.
As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit.
One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity.
You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.
PGS Energy Training is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA)
as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors.
State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit.
Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website:
CPAs interested in attending any seminars should contact our offices for details on CPE credits granted and any prerequisite requirements.
PGS Energy Training is registered with GARP as an Approved Provider of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) credits.
If you are a Certified FRM or ERP, please record this activity in your Credit Tracker at
Please inform PGS Energy Training that you are a GARP CPE participant upon seminar registration.
The Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) is a not-for-profit membership association dedicated
to preparing professionals and organizations for making better-informed risk decisions.
GARP's membership represents more than 150,000 risk management practitioners and researchers at academic institutions,
banks, corporations, government agencies, and investment management firms in 195 countries and territories.
GARP administers the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and Energy Risk Professional (ERP)
Exams – certifications recognized by risk professionals worldwide.
Among those who will benefit from this seminar include energy and electric power executives; attorneys; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators; engineers; and corporate planners. Types of companies that typically attend this program include energy producers and marketers; utilities; banks & financial houses; industrial companies; accounting, consulting & law firms; municipal utilities; government regulators and electric generators.
This fundamental level group live seminar has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required before the seminar.
PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs.
Basic level. This fundamental course begins with basic material and then proceeds to the intermediate level. Delivery method is "Group-Live.”