In-Depth: Practical Statistical Analysis for the Energy & Power Markets
Each Class is Limited to First 20 Registrants / A Three-Day Classroom Seminar (CPE Approved)
Houston, TX - April 22, 23 & 24, Homewood Suites by Hilton Houston Near the Galleria
This course adds a third day to the popular Energy Statistical Analysis seminar to allow the time needed for a more in-depth discussion and explanation of many important topics. Additionally, this three-day course is designed as a hand-on workshop. Not only will you learn about practical energy statistical techniques and tools, but you will practice building statistical models in a workshop format.
Learn why companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and how risk and value are properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing."
This comprehensive three-day program is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets. Through a combination of lecture and hands-on exercises that you will complete using your own laptop, participants will learn and practice key energy applications of statistical modeling. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization.
A laptop is required.
What You Will Learn
The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking for Energy Applications
· Basics of data science – Information from Data
· Descriptive Statistics, Means, Standard Deviations, Distribution Shapes
· Frequency Distributions and Confidence Intervals
· Implications of the Empirical Rule, Transformations and Probability
Fundamental Modeling Tools and Simulation
Exercise: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation to Evaluate Project Value and Risk
Application: Calculating Value at Risk (VaR)
· The Linear Method and
· The Quadratic Method
· Historic Simulation Method
· Monte Carlo Method
Exercise: Calculating VaR Using Three Different Methods
Application: Hedging Energy Exposure
· Understanding the "Greeks"
· How and when to Hedge
· Delta Hedging
· Dynamic Hedging
· Gamma Hedging
Application: Component Risk Analysis
· Payoff Diagrams
· Portfolio VaR Diagram
· CAPM, RAROC and the Sharp Ratio
· Calculating Load Following Supply Risk
· Layered Hedging using Statistical Triggers
Exercise: Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service
Exercise: Measuring Load Following Supply Risk
Exercise: Measuring Intermittent Renewable Supply Risk
Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge
· Univariate and Multivariate Analysis
· Hypotheses Testing
· Testing for Equal Means and Variances
· Control Charts
The Energy Forecasting Toolbox
· Historical Trend Analysis
· Univariate Time Series
· Multivariate Time Series
· Econometric Models
· Bayesian Estimation
· End-Use Models
· Engineering or Process Models
· Network Models
· Game Theory
Case Study: Statistical Reports that Everyone Can Understand
Case Study: Benchmarking to Industry Standards- GTS Steel vs. KCPL
Exercise: Building Regressions and Forecasting, PDF’s, CDF’s and Payoff Diagrams
Exercise: Calculating Hedge Ratios, Constructing an Energy Hedge and a Weather Hedge
Exercise: Using Forecasts in Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Risk Premium
Introduction to Real Options Analysis
· Details of Option Model Implementation
· Real Options and Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis
· Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices
· Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models
· Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion
Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility
Application: Real Option Value of Demand Response and the Smart Grid
Exercise: Calculating Volatility
Exercise: Simulating Prices using GBM and Mean Reversion Monte Carlo Models
Exercise: Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options
Exercise: Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options
Your Instructor - Houston
Kenneth Skinner, PhD - VP and Chief Operating Officer, Integral Analytics
Kenneth Skinner, Ph.D. is Vice President of Risk & Evaluation Products for Integral Analytics, an analytical software and management consulting firm focused on operational, planning, and market research solutions. Dr. Skinner has over 20 years’ experience in evaluation and risk measurement, having worked as an energy consultant with PHB Hagler Bailly and Financial Times (FT) Energy, and as the Derivative Structuring Manager for the retail energy supplier Sempra Energy Solutions. He has his Ph.D. from Colorado School of Mines, in Mineral Economics, with an emphasis in Operations Research, an MBA from Regis University and his BS in Engineering from Letourneau University.
Dr. Skinner is a nationally recognized expert in economic evaluation and modeling of energy assets including energy storage, distribution and generation, efficiency and demand response, renewable energy alternatives, financial derivatives and structured contracts using net present value, econometric and statistical methods, optimization principles, and real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is currently the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal and is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training.
Who Should Attend this Seminar
Among those who will benefit from this seminar include energy and electric power executives; attorneys; government regulators; traders & trading support staff; marketing, sales, purchasing & risk management personnel; accountants & auditors; plant operators; engineers; and corporate planners. Types of companies that typically attend this program include energy producers and marketers; utilities; banks & financial houses; industrial companies; accounting, consulting & law firms; municipal utilities; government regulators and electric generators.
Prerequisites and Advance Preparation
This fundamental level group live seminar has no prerequisites. No advance preparation is required before the seminar.
Basic level. This fundamental course begins with basic material and then proceeds to the intermediate level.
Why choose PGS?
PGS seminars are known for their clear explanations and in-depth content. Register for a PGS class today, and join the over 10,000 energy professionals who have already attended one of PGS's proven programs. View Past Seminar Attendees
Hotel and Seminar InformationThis seminar will be held at the hotel listed below or can be conducted on-site at your facilities. The seminar will start promptly at 8:00 AM and will finish at 4:00 PM on the first and second day. On the third day, the seminar will resume at 8:00 AM and will finish at 12:00 PM. The program includes continental breakfast, lunch-first and second day only, and coffee breaks. Attendees also receive a professionally produced seminar manual that can serve as a valuable office reference. Dress is casual for all seminars.
April 22, 23 & 24
Homewood Suites by Hilton Houston Near the Galleria
2950 Sage Road
Houston, TX 77056
Telephone: (713) 439-1305
Because of the diversity of hotels found in the area, PGS Energy Training will not be holding a block of sleeping rooms with one particular hotel. Should you need a list of local hotels in the area, please contact us at (440) 853-1038 and we can help you with your accommodations.
Registration Fee and Discounts
Register Today!. The price for this comprehensive three-day seminar is $2,945 (USD).Early Bird Special: Register on or before Jul 18, 2019 and save an additional $200 per order!
Register soon to get Early Bird pricing. A limited number of Early Bird seats are available.
Payment and Cancellations
Payment is due prior to the start of the seminar by Visa, Master Card, American Express, Diners Club, or corporate check. Seminar fees will be charged to your credit card at the time of registration unless other arrangements have been made. Please make checks payable to "PGS Energy Training" 26 Teal Lane · Hilton Head Island, SC 29926. Cancellations can be made up to five (5) business days prior to the start of the seminar for a full refund. No refunds will be made thereafter, but a one year full seminar credit will be given toward future workshops upon receipt of $175 which will used to help offset the non-refundable food, beverage, manual and other expenses incurred by PGS. This one year seminar credit is good for any PGS Energy Training program except for seminars offered by PGS affiliate organizations. Colleague substitutions may be made at any time. If PGS needs to cancel a seminar due to instructor unavailability, lack of attendance or other unforeseen reason, you will be offered the choice of rescheduling for another seminar, a seminar credit, or a refund. For more information on PGS policies regarding administrative matters and complaint resolution, please contact our offices at (440) 853-1038.
CPE Credits in Specialized Knowledge
This live group seminar is eligible for 18.0 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. As of January 1, 2002, sponsored learning activities are measured by program length, with one 50-minute period equal to one CPE credit. One-half CPE credit increments (equal to 25 minutes) are permitted after the first credit has been earned in a given learning activity. You may want to verify that the state board from which your participants will be receiving credit accept one-half credits.
PGS Energy Training is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.nasbaregistry.org. CPAs interested in attending any seminars should contact our offices for details on CPE credits granted and any prerequisite requirements.
PGS Energy Training is registered with GARP as an Approved Provider of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) credits. PGS Energy Training has determined that attending In-Depth: Practical Statistical Analysis for the Energy & Power Markets qualifies for 18.0 GARP CPD credit hours. If you are a Certified FRM or ERP, please record this activity in your Credit Tracker at http://www.garp.org/cpd.
The Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) is a not-for-profit membership association dedicated to preparing professionals and organizations for making better-informed risk decisions. GARP’s membership represents more than 150,000 risk management practitioners and researchers at academic institutions, banks, corporations, government agencies, and investment management firms in 195 countries and territories. GARP administers the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and Energy Risk Professional (ERP) Exams – certifications recognized by risk professionals worldwide. Visit www.garp.org/cpe.